Kicks off June 11, 2026

World Cup 2026
simulated 10,000 times.

Calibrated probabilities from QuantFut model v3. Chronological historical ELO + recent form + upset patterns. No lookahead bias.

Teams
48
Groups
12
Group matches
72
Simulations
10K
Title favorites

Top champion candidates

Probability computed over 10,000 full tournament simulations.

01
🇩🇪
Germany
Group E
8.0%
champion
02
🇦🇷
Argentina
Group J
6.5%
champion
03
🇪🇸
Spain
Group G
5.9%
champion
04
🇯🇵
Japan
Group F
ELO 1770 · form 2.00
4.4%
champion
05
🇸🇪
Sweden
Group F
ELO 1758 · form 2.60
4.3%
champion
06
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
England
Group L
ELO 1854 · form 1.60
4.2%
champion
07
🇨🇴
Colombia
Group K
ELO 1764 · form 1.80
4.1%
champion
08
🇦🇺
Australia
Group C
ELO 1703 · form 2.60
4.0%
champion
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Official FIFA draw

12 groups · 48 teams

Click a group to see advancement details.

Group A
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  • 1🇰🇷South KoreaADV
  • 2🇲🇽MexicoADV
  • 3🇨🇿Czech Republic3RD?
  • 4🇿🇦South AfricaOUT
Group B
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  • 1🇨🇭SwitzerlandADV
  • 2🇨🇦CanadaADV
  • 3🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina3RD?
  • 4🇶🇦QatarOUT
Group C
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  • 1🇦🇺AustraliaADV
  • 2🇹🇷TürkiyeADV
  • 3🇵🇾Paraguay3RD?
  • 4🇺🇸United StatesOUT
Group D
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  • 1🇲🇦MoroccoADV
  • 2🇧🇷BrazilADV
  • 3🇭🇹Haiti3RD?
  • 4🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandOUT
Group E
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  • 1🇩🇪GermanyADV
  • 2🇪🇨EcuadorADV
  • 3🇨🇼Curaçao3RD?
  • 4🇨🇮Ivory CoastOUT
Group F
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  • 1🇳🇱NetherlandsADV
  • 2🇯🇵JapanADV
  • 3🇸🇪Sweden3RD?
  • 4🇹🇳TunisiaOUT
Group G
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  • 1🇪🇸SpainADV
  • 2🇺🇾UruguayADV
  • 3🇸🇦Saudi Arabia3RD?
  • 4🇨🇻Cape VerdeOUT
Group H
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  • 1🇮🇷IranADV
  • 2🇧🇪BelgiumADV
  • 3🇳🇿New Zealand3RD?
  • 4🇪🇬EgyptOUT
Group I
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  • 1🇸🇳SenegalADV
  • 2🇫🇷FranceADV
  • 3🇮🇶Iraq3RD?
  • 4🇳🇴NorwayOUT
Group J
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  • 1🇦🇷ArgentinaADV
  • 2🇦🇹AustriaADV
  • 3🇯🇴Jordan3RD?
  • 4🇩🇿AlgeriaOUT
Group K
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  • 1🇨🇴ColombiaADV
  • 2🇵🇹PortugalADV
  • 3🇺🇿Uzbekistan3RD?
  • 4🇨🇩DR CongoOUT
Group L
→ see more
  • 1🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandADV
  • 2🇵🇦PanamaADV
  • 3🇬🇭Ghana3RD?
  • 4🇭🇷CroatiaOUT
Path to the title

Most likely bracket

Top teams per phase across 10,000 simulations.

R16 · top 8
  • 🇩🇪Germany57%
  • 🇦🇷Argentina51%
  • 🇦🇺Australia50%
  • 🇪🇸Spain50%
  • 🇨🇴Colombia47%
  • 🇰🇷South Korea46%
  • 🇯🇵Japan44%
  • 🇸🇪Sweden43%
QF · top 8
  • 🇩🇪Germany36%
  • 🇦🇷Argentina31%
  • 🇪🇸Spain30%
  • 🇦🇺Australia27%
  • 🇨🇴Colombia27%
  • 🇯🇵Japan26%
  • 🇸🇪Sweden25%
  • 🇰🇷South Korea25%
Semis · top 4
  • 🇩🇪Germany23%
  • 🇦🇷Argentina19%
  • 🇪🇸Spain18%
  • 🇨🇴Colombia15%
Final · top 2
  • 🇩🇪Germany14%
  • 🇦🇷Argentina11%
🏆 Champion
  • 🇩🇪Germany8.0%
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